Mortgage Applications fall 2.8% in month. Other US data due out this NY Morning
Refinancings fell -0.8%
Purchase Index fell -6.2%
The Average Mortgage Rate fell to 4.94%. 4.61% was the lowest rate reached at the end of March
The rate decline is encouraging and has to stay down to squeeze out more sales now that demand from new buyers has kicked in a bit – especially in the shorter end where new home owners are taking advantage of the stimulus plan and rebate for new homeowner program.
At 8:15 AM today the ADP Employment Change will be released for the month of September. The expectation is for a -200K reading after a -298K fall last month. The ADP report does not include government workers. Last month the fall of -298K overstated the job losses from the Non Farm Payroll as that measure showed a decline of -216K, The Non Farm report for September is due for release on Friday and the is expected to decline by -180K as it continues its improvement. The last two months have overstated the job losses by 82 and 84K. The biggest difference was -158K in May when the ADP report estimated a decline of -461K vs -303K.
Also at 8:30 the GDP for the revision to 2nd quarter will be released. The estimate is for a -1.2% decline vs the original estimate of -1.0% with Personal Consumption showing a -1.0% decline.
Consumption which accounts for 70% of US GDP has been down for 3 of the last quarters. The 3rd quarter is more the focus now. As a result, the market should not react strongly to this particular release this morning.
At 9:45 The Chicago PMI index is due. The expectation is for another reading above 50 (52.0 Expected). This would be the highest level since September 2008.
Finally at 10:00 AM the Milwaukee PMI is expected to come in. Last month the index rose to 56.0. This was the highest reading since January 2008. There is no estimate available.
