US Trade Balance due at 8:30 with US Initial Claims
The US Trade Balance for the month of October will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for the headline figure to be close to unchanged versus last month. The expectation is for the deficit to worsen slightly to -36.8 billion. The inflation adjusted trade balance will also be released. This is the figure which is used in the GDP report and last month it came in at -36.472 billion which was a larger deficit than expected. It was the highest deficit since January 2009 and also contributed to the lowering of the GDP for the 3rd quarter. A larger deficit has the effect of subtracting from GDP growth.
Imports last month grew last month to 168.43 billion from 158.15 the month prior. Exports also grew but at a smaller amount. They rose to 131.96 billion from 128.30 billion.
Also of importance this morning is the Initial Claims for the current week. The expectation is for little change this week (455K vs 457K last week). However, the trend is improving and with the better than expected Employment Report released last week, the market is anxious to maintain the gains achieved over the last few months.
The Continuing Claims are expected to show a decline to 5450k from 5465K last week.
