In the $ index, the longer term bullish view remains in place with further gains toward the targets over the last few months at 81.85/00 (50% retracement from the March 2009 high at 89.60), and potentially even an approach of that 89.60 high still favored. Note too that the weekly…

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$ Index, Have to Take What the Market Gives….

Currencies dithered all day long yet again, and mostly ended the day back at the starting point.

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An Interesting Thursday by At Least One Measure

Overnight the EURUSD bounced off the 100 hour MA at the 1.3618 ( the low reached 1.3621). The level also corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the low to high range that has prevailed over the last 3 weeks  which adds to the significance.  The key level on the topside remains at 1.3691. A break above this level should solicit additional buying interest.  Conversely, a move back below the 1.3621 should solicit selling interest. 

Looking at the 5 minute chart the bias is also positive with the price above the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.3649 and 1.3645 levels respectively.   IF the price can stay above  these levels intraday the bias would remain positive.

The market continues to be contained in the three week (plus) range, but  the longer it goes on, the closer we get to a break out. Longer term the price on daily chart has tested the bottom 4 times and each time it has bounced.  A 38.2% correction off these lows still targets the 1.3852-73 area. This would be a modest correction for the pair.   Finding support at the 100 hour MA keeps the spirit of that move alive today. Confirmation would come with a break of the 1.3691 level.  The high for the last three weeks at 1.3735 would be the next hurdle of course, but it is surmountable.